Killie Preview

Dundee -v- Kilmarnock Preview

The big kick-off is nigh upon us, and if you’re like me, you’re probably nervous already, desperately so, and have been for the last week now.  Each week, to help calm my nerves, and assure me we are destined for glory, I’m going to break-down our opposition (if it’s possible) and question “Do Dundee have the ability to exploit these issues”.

Predicted Formation and XI

Having looked over Killie’s pre-season and discussed it with a couple of their fans, their is a general consensus that this is how they will line up, although today (Thursday 7th August), they re-signed Alexi Eremenko, which is a wildcard, as Allan Johnston may see the need for his creativity.  Most likely though he will come from the bench, and we will look at this later.

Goalkeeper

Craig Samson – Craig is well known to Dundee fans, having played for us in the 07-08 season.  From this time, he was seen as a decent enough First Division keeper, but nothing more.  He was prone to an occasional clanger, and was susceptible to crosses.  Last season for Killie he was an ever present, playing every game.  If we can work out set-pieces correctly, he might start to fumble, but he is a decent shot stopper.

Last season stats: 40 appearances, with 72 goals against.  1.8 goals against per game on average.

Craig Samson clanger -v- Celtic in 4-0 loss last season.

Defence

Ross Barbour – The 21 year old is a Killie kid, who started to break in to their side last season.  They have high hopes for him, but his inexperience against our vastly experienced XI may mean he finds himself out of position at points, or overwhelmed.

Last season stats:  7 appearances, 12 conceded. 1.71 GPG against.

Mark Connolly – Connolly is a new signing for Killie, having been one of 13 players released by Crawley Town at the end of last season, having finished 14th of the 24 teams.  He is still young at   22 years old, and transferred from Wolves to Bolton for £1M in 2009.  He had a very solid start for Crawley, but faded, despite maintaining his place last season.

Last season stats:  40 apps last season for Crawley, 46 conceded. – GPG against was 1.15

Lee Ashcroft  – Another prospect from the Killie Academy. Ashcroft made his debut in the 2012/13 season, playing 3 times, and has came in to his own, becoming a regular for them last season.  He was brought on during the Dundee -v- Killie match in May 2013.

Last season stats:  25 appearances with 46 conceded – GPG was 1.84

Mark O’Hara – You guessed it, another youth player here.  Made his debut in 2012/13, playing 20 times at the age of just 16.  He’s now 18, with some experience, having played a similar amount last season, and most pre-season games this year as a starter.  His LB position is one which Killie fans really worry about, as they feel he is to young for week in – week out football, but it could be the making of him.  He’s calm on the ball, but struggles against physicality.  Can also play RB.

Last season stats:  16 appearances, conceding 32 goals.

Last season their team average defensively was 1.8 conceded per game.  Samson was an ever present, thus his stats apply.  Using their predicted defensive starters, their conceded goals per game average become 1.625 conceded per game – mainly dragged up by Connolly with Crawley Town.  He could be a quality signing for them in helping shore up a very loose defence.  Fair to say this is certainly a position they will need to improve upon from last year.

MIDFIELD

Craig Slater – Former St Mirren youth player, Slater made his debut for them in December 2012.  His preferred role is as a holding midfielder.

Last season stats:  23 appearances and 1 goal.  GPG against is 2.

Manuel Pascali – The second holding midfielder, Pascali is the leader of the team, and can also hold down the centre defence if needed.  Personally, I see him as Killie’s most important player in this XI, even if some of their fans see him as a bit of a hot and cold player.  He does tend to only play roughly 20 games per season.

Last season stats:  32 appearances and 0 goals.  GPG against was 1.875

Chris Johnston – A 19 year old, natural right winger, but he can play in the middle as well.  Now that they’ve signed Eremenko again, he’ll likely hold down the right winger position for them.  Probably their most naturally talented player from their youth system, Killie fans expect big things from him this season.  22 appearances with 4 goals. GPG against was 2.

Tope Obadeyi – A pacy left winger, Tope has never really been able to hold down a permanent role at any club he’s been at, but he’s certainly able to whip in a dangerous cross, and scored a wonderful strike against Morecambe in their 2-2 draw, this pre-season.

Last season stats for Bury / Plymouth: 25 appearances, 1 goal, with a GPG against of 1.06

Tope Obadeyi rocket -v- Morecambe.

ATTACK

Josh Magennis – A player Aberdeen fans have been jokingly trying to palm off to every other club they could.  Magennis is a 6 foot 2 target man, who also has a decent first touch, and some pace to go with it.  His main problem is that he just can’t score however.  He’s scored just 10 goals in 122 career games.  He has scored 2 for Killlie in pre-season however, one being a fine header against Morecambe.

Last season stats:  35 appearances between Aberdeen (parent club) and St Mirren. 1 goal.  Career average of 0.07 goals per game scored.

Josh Magennis header -v- Morecambe.

Rory McKenzie – Still fairly young at the age of 20, Rory McKenzie is the final prospect from the youth system at Killie.  He has started almost every pre-season game up top, with other strikers rotating around hiim, so he looks a stick-on to start. He has create ball control, and his movement can cause havoc for defences.  Probably the striker which Konrad will have to mark, with McPake taking Magennis.

Last season stats:  35 appearances, 4 goals, giving him 0.11 goals per game.  His career average is 0.17.

Loss of Boyd

Most people are asking this question, and pinning all of Killies hopes on this not being as catastrophic as the stats suggest.  After signing Boyd for the season, he featured 37 times, scoring a remarkable 22 goals in that time, giving him a goal per game ratio of 0.59 goals per game.  Killie only scored 48 goals last season, the joint 9th worst in the league.  When you add on that they’ve not lost the player who scored 45% of their goals, it is a major worry, as much as they fans try to play it down.

Rory McKenzie could very well develop in to a striker that can score 10, maybe even 15 this year if he has a good spell, but the chances of him leading the team in the way Boyd did, getting crucial goals that he did, or indeed scoring the 22 that he did, are very slim.

Breakdown of Weaknesses

While it may seem very harsh to judge Killie based on one of their toughest, and worst result of last season, the 4-0 trouncing at Parkhead gives Dees fans a whiff of optimism in my eyes.  Celtic exposed Killie is only 2 or 3 real ways, but those ways are the manner which Paul Hartley has us exploiting.

1st goal – Joe Ledley from James Forrest ball.

Joe Ledleys goal is an example of centre midfielder making a late run through an open channel to give a through ball an option.  Now, to take you back to “Other Chances” section of my Dundee -v- Peterhead Review, the first point we talk about is a Gary Harkins overlap, to a through ball from Kevin Thomson.  It’s a perfect example of how to exploit Killie and their youthful left and right backs, who may be caught ball watching.

Joe Ledley goal from Forrest through ball.

3rd Goal – Joe Ledley lob pass.

Joe Ledley turned from scorer in to maker here, with a goal similar to our third -v- Peterhead.  To quote my summary of Peaso’s goal; “a dead weight ball, with perfect lob, right on his target[s]”.  Added to this case is Manuel Pascali completely misjudging the offside trap he set, playing Mulgrew onside, having been watching the ball, not the man.

Perfectly weighted ball to Mulgrew by Ledley.

Several Goals Source

Last season, Killie lost a fair few goals from teams targetting their weakness at the backs, including the Samson clanger at the top where the player stands off.  United in the 4-1 hammering they gave at Rugby Park done so extremely well, with Stuart Armstrong getting in to a great position with young Ashcroft, and making him run to his own goal, then simply turn him out of the game.  Getting Harkins, Boyle and McGowan in these positions could be very positive for our goal tally on Saturday.

Armstrong turning Ashcroft inside out.

Dundee Line-up

I see us lining up in a 4-2-3-1 this weekend for a few reasons.  First off – it’s clearly the perfect formation for a team with only 1 notable SPL level striker in Tankulic. We don’t have enough quality yet to go and play Stewart, Peaso or Wighton IMO, we need to prove we can create at this level first.

Secondly, it’s a formation which is flexible.  If we don’t seem to start well on Saturday, it’s easily switched in to a multitude of formations, from 4-4-2 with 1 switch of a midfielder turning into a striker, to 4-3-3 with one of your ACMs dropping to DCM (Defensive CM).  5-4-1 and 4-5-1 and easily done also.  It’s probably the most comfortable starting formation any manager can start with.

Finally – it has a great balance between attack and defence to use against a side which MAY be lacking goals, and MAY be vulnerable to it’s backs being exploited.

As you see, in attacking situations, we potentially can have 4 players, 2 on each side attacking their backs, with 3 central players (Ferry, McGowan and Tankulic) looking for link-ups.

Attacking 4-2-3-1 Positions.

This is the reason why I feel we need to (and probably will) start Martin Boyle.  Martin is developing well under Hartley, and as much as Hartley seems determined to turn him in at an ACM, he’s a natural winger with his pace and ability to knock the ball past a man, and Kilmarnock are the side to use that against, to me.