The Season DRAWS To An End.

*WARNING* Data driven blog – no tactics or video here. *WARNING*

I think the title is an awfully apt one, don’t you?  A couple of draws away from a second successive Top 6 spot, yet at points we were teetering on the edge of those draws going against us and finding ourself in a dog fight – that’s just how tight the league was this year for large spells.

It’s fair to say that we have earned the joking nickname of Drawdee FC among some circles.  5 draws more than our nearest challengers in the Draw League ( Hearts & ICT on 10 each) which is more than both our Win and Loss tallies.  So there’s probably nothing better to analyse than this.  Why so many draws?  What could(‘ve) been done to stop this?

The balance of our draws is even as can be – 7 at home and 8 away, so that isn’t the source issue.  Looking at the core numbers I am lead to the thought that we have different issues home and away.

In the home draws, we have been the Bookies favourite for 6 of the 7 games (Celtic are the exception), and in those games we have taken more shots than the opposition (75 -v- 56), and hit more of them on target (43 -v- 26) giving a Shots on Target % match of 57% -v- 46%.  This isn’t any real difference to the home game average of 55% -v- 47%, so we can disregard that as a major issue.

Looking across the spectrum however, we are committing LESS fouls in the games we draw at home than those we win by a very large margin.  In winning games we are committing 12.7 fouls per game compared to 8.7 in draws, a very large discrepancy compared to the difference to losses which is 9.8 fouls a game (see table below).

Compared to away from home results it is even more stark.  We average 11.3 fouls away from home.  Broken down to Wins – 10.75, Draws – 11.625 and Loses – 11.5.  This is a much flatter share, which can easily come down to a number of lesser factors.

A fairly reasonable conclusion to take from this is that the game where our players show more “dig” and enforce our control on the game, we win.  Games where we withdraw or allow teams to play more expansively, we are losing points.  It becomes evident we must find more aggression and control over games to win them.

Away from home is much harder to break down looking at core numbers, but indeed there is even an argument that it is a bigger issue.  We amassed just 20 points away from home this season (with 1 more to go), which is the third worst road record in the league behind United (15 pts) and Ross County (18 pts), and is tied with Hamilton.

This could be more of a tactical issue as of the 6 games where there were goals in the draws, we managed to blow leads in 4 of them.  Shoring up the defence would be a great way to stop leaking these single goals which lead to points hindering us from making the Top 6 – and is a full reversal from last season being a side so reliant on away points.  We are currently 5th in the Home Table standings on a fine 28 points – a draw converted in to a win away from being tied 4th with St. Johnstone.

That’s my short review of one of our issues this season – expect a full 1500 worder once I’ve re-charged my batteries battering Baseball Statistics in Chicago.

Keep It Dark Blue.

 

(Well Over) Half Way Review pt.2 – Hartley’s Revenge

I’ll preface this post with a note: Part 1 was always intended to be a brutal analysis of our biggest short coming – our defence.  When I started going through the goals we’ve conceded, I didn’t expect anyone to stand out as much as Paul McGinn did for me, so the last blog ended up reading like a hatchet job to some – it wasn’t intended like such, but that’s the nature of the beast in analysis.  I live by Gary Neville’s maxim that “I don’t apologise for spending 5 minutes on a corner, a series of set pieces, a pattern of play or one individual.”  If that doesn’t work for you, fine, one mans over-analysing is another mans (usually a coaches) perfect detail.

So looking on the flip side, it’s clear to most that our attack is now phenomenal when they click.  Even when they don’t click, we’ve still got a formidable one to pair with any other in the league to me.  The increase of 0.21 goals per game scored comes from having actual options up from, as opposed to relying on Greg Stewart so heavily to produce (which he did, and still does).  Greg has went from scoring 31% of our league goals by this day last year to scoring 18% of them, which is a much more sustainable average and balance.

The biggest influence in this is undoubtedly Kane Hemmings, and their partnership.  20 goals in just 32 matches is a phenomenal return, and much more understandable and sustainable from a centre forward/striker than a wide man/inside forward.

His best strength is playing off the last man, or between defenders.  He seems to be comfortable creating havoc by switching between the 2 or 3 defenders around him, and finding space this way.

Goal 1 – Dundee 1-2 Hearts

There are 2 very similar links between the first two goals – not just that they’re from crosses. With this goal, as with the next, Hemmings shows an innate ability to communicate with the crosser, and predict where the ball is going, in this case with his Cowdenbeath strike partner Greg Stewart.

The real beauty in this goal comes from 2 real pieces of skill by two different players.  Firstly, Kane manages to work his way off of Callum Paterson, and make there be reasonable doubt between the two centre half’s (Blazej Augustyn the other culprit) as to who should be marking him, but to really make it work, the credit could quite easily also go to James McPake who makes the short pass option run to Stewart, which makes the gap for Hemmings, and leaves Paterson realising it was indeed his man, and not Augustyn’s.

The finish? Doesn’t need explained – he’s a quality finisher.

Goal 2 – Dundee 2-1 St. Johnstone

The similarity between the goals in this case is exemplified by the fact that he’s learned to play the space, and not the man, which will often create room for the ball to be played in.

Lows (what you’d likely deem as heavy) first touch, works perfectly here as it creates confusion between Dave McKay and Chris Millar as to who will close Low down, it what is really an easy choice, had McKay remembered Kane was behind him.  With just 5 steps at an incorrect angle, Hemmings has managed to open up that many between the two directly, which is what makes the chance.

The ball quality from Low cannot be overlooked.  He’s floated it in to where you want your striker to be, using that natural sense to understand that Low knows where he should put it, on the penalty spot. Doing what you expect of every player at every chance, he’s won his battle.

The 5 yards distance destroy McKay.  It’s near impossible to win a header when you’re on your back foot, and the striker has the run on the ball.

The finish?  HE’S A QUALITY FINISHER!

Goal 3 – Dunfermilne Athletic 3-1 Dundee

This goal, while being a heavy portion of poor defending (and tracking by the Dunfermilne players 4, 6 and 8), just exemplifies the Hemmings movement pattern and spacial awareness.

He (and I hate this word in this sense) gambles on the ball going across goal, and finds the space.  Credit must really go to Nick Ross for the run which pulls the defender away from Hemmings space, and the dummy.

Goal 4 – Dundee 1-1 Inverness Caley Thistle

Is the pattern visible to you, without needing to look for it twice yet?  He plays the shoulders of Danny Devine and David Raven, and runs for the gap.  It’s another tremendous finish, to keep the ball down and slot it to the corner.

Goal 5 – Dundee 1-1 Partick Thistle

This is the most intricate goal for movement, but shows once again his love for shoulder play (that sounds too much like a BDSM fetish for my liking).

The Loy movement and subsequent drop deeper for the ball is what makes the room, and it confuses Seaborne in to trying to play the gap, and not his man (Kane), who he was with since the previous phase of the play.  The touch by Nick Ross and the above goal against Dunfermilne show that Ross is likely much more effective as an advanced player, and not a holding one.  But with Harkins in our side, we seem a much more potent threat going forward, which leaves PH with tough decisions.

Goal 6 St. Johnstone 1-1 Dundee

Let’s overlook the utter quality, and connection between Greg Stewart and Kane Hemmings with the back heel and 1-2 to focus on what the trend is – Hemmings’ movement.

I’d advise on watching this on 0.5 speed on YouTube.

*Click this link, then the Settings Wheel and alter the speed to 0.5*

There are a handful of things done by Hemmings which many run of the mill strikers at this level won’t do correctly.  The very first is thinking 2 passes ahead of the game, which is something that top level managers notice in players very early. Listen to Gordon Strachan describe Shinsuke Nakamura thinking 4 passes ahead of the game, 18 mins 10 seconds in.

He’s done the advanced thought with the look over his left shoulder 2 and a half seconds before he even touches the ball, and a second before the ball is even played in his direction. What he’s seen is Dave McKay (who isn’t the fastest player) having to catch up with the defence line, and coming out at an angle.  With McKays lack of pace, a single touch for the 1-2 with Stewart can take him out the game – and Hemmings knows this subconsciously, thus the run (to the open gap, which he’s seen open with the shoulder look) becomes an easy movement.

The finish, he’s quality etc.

Goals 7, 8 and 9 Dundee 4-0 Hamilton Accies

These two are stupidly similar to the Inverness goal, that it seems like Hamiltons defenders (#44 Tagliapietra and #15 Sendles White) weren’t shown how he plays, and even then, they failed to do any of the basics expected before that.

The movement and chasing by Kano is what you need from an isolated solo striker on balls over the top (albeit with GGH behind).  Exactly the same as the Inverness goal, he makes the run to the space  knowing there is a chance, but more importantly is his position when the ball comes forward in both cases, if you don’t see what’s common about his position in relation to the CHs when the fall pas to him is made, here’s a compilation of images to show you.

This is much more similar to goal #6 than any other thus far.Once he gets 1 on 1 with the final defender, he knows exactly where he is taking it – to the space to hit back across goal, with a finish that is a repeat of Goal #6.  The technique is flawless also, the key being his use of his arms to control his body angle, and his core to keep himself steady and over the ball.

Goal 10 Ross County 5-2 Dundee

Not so isolated this time, the directness of Stewart forces Hemmings to make a run away from goal, but the very neat thing about the run is that it’s one which creates space for the Stewart>GGH pass if the marking is too good.

Goal 11 Ross County 5-2 Dundee

I’m sick of saying it, but not of seeing it.  Off the shoulder, in the space, quality finisher.

Goal 12 Dundee 2-1 Dundee United

When Kane was in the papers the other week saying he learned so much by training under Ally McCoist, this was the goal that flashed in my mind.  This is the sort of position that Ally would always find himself standing in.  He didn’t often challenge for headers in the box or stick himself about, he stayed on his feet and instinctively knew where to be, just like Kane here.

Goal 13 Partick Thistle 2-4 Dundee

Not much to say about penalties is there?  No nonsense, foot through it, ice in the head.  Goggles on after it hits the net.

Goal 14 Dundee 3-1 Falkirk

Guess where the run started?  Ignoring the offside debate, the audacity to hit it from 20 yards out is brilliant.  It’s what we as fans want to see, players taking chances/risks.  The way he’s lined his body it seems like he’s went for the post across goal, but it’s took a great swerve from the side off his foot and completely took the keeper by surprise.

Without wasting any more time, it’s fair to say the pattern in Hemmings play is noticeable, and the teams who manage to keep him quiet play a tight marking scheme on him, or make him drop deep and off the front line.

Kane is 3 league goals off equalling Nacho Novo’s SPL/SPFL Dundee record of 19 league goals in 35 league appearances (25 in 44 in total).  That something which he is entirely capable of doing, and if he gets enough service, we should see him do.

Vive La Hemmings.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Just Over) Half Way Review pt.1 – Is Pat Nevin Wrong?

We’re just over half way through the season, and I’ve decided to give this a bash in a little bit of free time I have once more.

It’s been a very frustrating season so far.  We evidently have the ability to “click” and kill teams with our attacking prowess (4-0 -v- Killie and Hamilton, as well as 4-2 -v- Partick where we took the foot off the pedal too much).

That is the most noticeable difference between this and last season.  We’ve turned from a team who scored just 1.21 goals per game (tied 8th in the league last season) to a side scoring 1.52 goals per game (6th in the league).  This however has seen the inevitable decline in our defence, from 1.5 goals per game against to just under 1.7.  This is a slight improvement (although it’s an incomplete data set, with Celtic likely to be faced another 3 times this season).

The largest part of this disappointment is that Paul McGinn who has shown lots of signs of improvements in areas is developing a very nasty habit of failing to mark men when a ball comes across the face of goal, or in behind him.  There isn’t any denying this is a tough skill for a Defender to possess.  It requires the ability to predict and/or watch the body movement of the crosser while judging the balls trajectory, and conclude where the ball and your man are both going, and when the man is behind you, it’s often a case of being wrong costing a goal.

Goal 1 – Blair Spittal, Dundee United 2-0 Dundee, 67 minutes.

The Tannadice Derby was the first he showed of it this season.  For the second goal he’s made the worst possible start in the lead up by positioning himself outwith the offside trap line. This isn’t entirely his fault, it’s more a fault of circumstances than anything else.  When the ball is lost in the middle of the pitch by an out of position Kevin Holt it sets of a series of errors.

McPake has to stand up and stop Erskine driving on, of this there is no question.  And it leaves us 2 on 2 at the back.  Konrad now has to hold the left side of defence (and Simon Murray), while the ball is played through where Konrad wants to be.  Here comes the issue.  McGinn has turned to face Spittal outwards, which is a fine position to take if the ball is outside the 18 yard box, to show him the byline.

However, Spittal is within the posts by the time he gets his first touch.  Had McGinn been properly positioned (and not done a 270 degree turn), he would’ve had an extra yard on Spittal, and been able to make a challenge, instead of being a half step shy of being able to tackle.

Goal 2 – Steve MacLean, Dundee 2-1 St. Johnstone, 54 minutes.

This is a harsh one, I’ll admit, but I feel it shows the core issue.

Once Bain makes the save which deflects the ball to MacLean, it falls to exactly where you want your RB to be in that case, the right hand side of the 6 yard box.  Players are taught to win their own battles, and to win this battle he has to be in position, which he isn’t, and it’s a part of the trend that we saw continue at Parkhead…

Goal 3 – Tom Rogic, Celtic 6-0 Dundee, 14 minutes.

In this example, McGinn finds himself caught far too central in the (congested) box, and even then his man manages to lose him, and also drag him to open up room for the cut-back to Rogic for the goal.

Rogic being un-marked is a massive issue, which could’ve been solved by Harkins tracking him, or Konrad not ball-watching.

But on McGinn, he has 2 real options.  Firstly he could be playing on the right hand side of the Defence when the ball goes wide, stopping Izaguirre getting the ball, or when the ball is played, he could be the first to react, which is more important.  He’s running outward and stops on Forrest, but by not watching play, he’s left McPake to cover what should be his position (which ultimately causes the goal).

In the image below, McPake has had to make the Red run to make the tackle, one which could’ve been done by any of the 4 players who were at that side of the box when the ball was there, but especially McGinn (WIN YOUR OWN BATTLES!).  By doing so it’s dragged McPake from where a CH should be, which is the sky blue area, and left our left back (Irvine) in the middle of the goal, opening up Griffiths as another option.

When the final ball goes in, Emilio Izaguirre had 3/4 options of which Celtic were likely to score from, in a game where especially in the first 15 minutes you must keep your shape and avoid conceding.  Griffiths, Forrest, Rogic (scorer) and a deep cut back to Brown are options.

Goal 4 – Liam Boyce, Dundee 3-3 Ross County, 19 minutes.

Some times your lack of pace just gets exposed, and this is one of those times.

There are a few other issues however, which need correcting.  Boyce has been given 8 yards of dribbling before being stood up, by which point the tackle which is withdrawn (and causes Boyce to get past him) would’ve been in the Penalty Box.  If you’re facing a man dribbling at you (who in fairness is talented with the ball at his feet), you want to make the tackle (and potential foul) outside the box, and as early as possible.  Can’t take away from Boyce though, it was a decent finish, even if Bain could’ve done better.

Goal 5 – Stephen Pearson,  Dundee 2-1 Motherwell, 83 minutes.

This is similar to the Parkhead goal, but he has to be given the benefit of doubt.  Paul’s once again caught far too central (albeit this time covering for BOTH centre halves being caught out), which has lead to his tackle being too late.  This is just a cluster of defensive errors strewn together in this example, but remember to WYOB!

Goal 6 – Adam Rooney,  Dundee 0-2 Aberdeen, 25 minutes.

This is a scary one.  See Goal 8 for the exact same thing done, against the same striker, with the same crosser, the same type of ball and obviously the same result.

This isn’t exclusive to goals, it happens quite a lot.

Goal 7 – David Amoo,  Dundee 4-2 Partick Thistle, 23 minutes.

Wrong sided by his marker, then sleeping as the second ball comes up for grabs.  This really is defending 101.  You need to be tight, you really should be goal side, and you must ALWAYS be on your toes ready for the second ball.  We were 3-0, but atleast look like you want to really keep a clean sheet.

Goal 8 – Adam Rooney, Aberdeen 1-0 Dundee, 14 minutes.

Here’s the creepy analysis for Goals 6 and 8 combined, seen as they are EXACTLY the same.  Literally, the same.  Crossed by Hayes, ball rolls over the corner of the 6 yard line, with Rooney coming from behind McGinn to get to the ball first and score.

First off – with both goals, and both games, it’s clear to see that Derek McInnes has set his sides up to go for Dundees full backs.  Holt and McGinn were under pressure from the off, and were always getting balls put on top of them and having men run at them.  It’s compounded by the fact that Hayes is one of the best on his day in the league at driving on at full backs and getting balls in to the box.

Holt throughout the season has allowed too many men to get the ball in before he makes the tackle, and it is no different with these goals.  In Goal 8, Hayes even cuts back outside the Penalty box, giving Holt the chance to make a relatively risk free tackle.  Sure he gets the luck of a deflection, but there is plenty of time for it to be put in.

Whereas in Goal 6, we find that Holt is left exposed, giving the wide man roughly 10 yards free.  Criminal defending against the team who are challenging for the title!

Another similar question raised in both goals is the desire for players to win these crosses.  In Goal 6, an Aberdeen player manages to slide in for the cross and come close to getting the goal, while McPake and Julen stay standing, leaving it up to Bain to commit, which if he misses, he knows he’s conceding a goal (*SPOILER* and does).

For Goal 8, there is only 1 player who could slide in for the ball as it runs across goal, and our other season long CH Thomas Konrad stays standing and won’t commit to clearing it.

Now to McGinn.  For both goals he looks at Rooney TWICE within a second of the ball being put in.  So he knows where he is.  For Goal 6, it’s already too late though as Rooney has made his yard (from McGinn sleeping) and has an empty goal to slot in to.

In 8, he does the double look before the ball is put across and knows he is in the right position this time, not attempting to play an invisible offside trap.  However he’s lined his body up wrongly for this cross.  He’s running backwards, presumably to watch the man, but by doing this, he’s given Rooney the gap to make the jump behind him for the ball once put in, which causes the goal.

I know this seems like I hate Paul McGinn, but I don’t.  He can put in a good ball when going forward, but defensively, he is being targeted (as is Holt) as neither has a natural midfielder playing in front of them.  When Greg Stewart is infront he will often times be too far advanced, causing room to open for 2 opposition players to run at them.  And when it is Low, we’re finding more and more that he’s a central player who is more adapted to moving and defending horizontally, rather than vertically up and down the line.  This isn’t a new phenomenon for central players playing out wide, but it needs considered.

In closing, we have options.  Cammy Kerr could come in and play any of 5 potential positions to choose from, those being Left Back, Right back, Left Midfield, Right Midfield and possibly Defensive Midfielder also.  He would add a defensive side to any of those roles, which I feel we are too attacking with right now.  Will be revert to some more defence?  I can’t see it, what with the signing of a striker and not another defensive player on top of O’Dea who is a direct replacement for McPake.

Is Hartley wrong to have a dig at Sportscene?  No.  It’s a poor show.  Is he wrong to have a dig at Thomson and Nevin?  Yes.  They’ve pointed out real issues in our shape and ability to defend.  It’s nothing new though, Steven Thomson hasn’t played in the league this season and knows we play so narrow we expose those 2 positions.

St Mirren -v- Dundee Preview

I hate to call this game a big game, or a must-win, especially so early, but the more and more you look at it, we need to get a W on the board, and preferably score some goals – here’s the preview.

Predicted Formation and XI

Letheren, McGinn, McPake, Konrad, Irvine, McBride, Ferry, Boyle, McGowan, Harkins and Tankulic.

Dyer and Thomson out injured means we have a slightly altered defensive side to the team, and the attacking side is still open to options.  Tomorrow I could see Hartley pitting McGowan next to Jim Goodwin of St Mirren.  Goodwin is coming back from his opening day Red Card, and is a well known hot-head, and Paul McGowan is “an angry little man” – Kevin Thomson.  McGowan wings folk up brilliantly on the pitch, and is the sort you hate against you but love for you.  So to me, it’s clear we must have them face off as much as possible.

I also bench Wighton.  This is a move that a lot of fans will dislike, but Goodwin is a dirty player and I would HATE to see him injured at his hands.  He can be a fantastic impact sub later on as he can find the space and play central once Goodwin is off, or tired and can’t get to him.  I play Boyle for the same reason as McGowan, he would run Goodwin and co crazy with his pace.  Add in we’ve lacked width so far this season, and it could answer our goal problems.

I also go with Tank from the start, but it’s in the 4-2-3-1 which he looked so comfortable in during pre-season.  I still insist this is his best formation, as it allows him to drop deep and make room for the 3 behind him to get in and about too.  The 4-2-3-1 is really needing tested in the league, and with St Mirren being a low scoring side, we can run the risk to test it.

Predicted 4-2-3-1 line-up.

St Mirren Strength

Their main strength is that at home, they are a strong side. They won 7 of their 22 home ties last season, a decent 36%.  Their goal record at home last season was actually a positive record at +3, having scored 23 goals, and only conceded 20 in the league.  The only team in last season Bottom 6 to do so as well.  Definitely down to being organised and hard to break down.

This is showed in their solid defensive record, with the second best defence in the bottom 6, conceding 58 goals in their 38 league games, giving an average of 1.5 goals per game against.

Key Players

Steven Thompson

It’s an easy one to pick.  Their top scorer who put in 16 goals in his 41 games last season.  The DAB is certainly their key to the net with 32% of their goals, thankfully for us, he is injured and expected to only play from the bench tomorrow, as he could’ve been a handful, but I’d have had faith in Konrad and McPake anyway.

Jim Goodwin

Goodwin as pointed out is a liability, which is why many St Mirren fans are shouting for him to be kept out the side, but it can’t be denied, he is a great player at breaking down attacks. His problem is his 7 career red cards, and with him aging and slowing down now at the age of 32, I can only see that number going up this season.  Will he start, I’d say he probably will as management see him as a leader.

St Mirrens Weakness

The one thing that holds St Mirren back is their lack of goals around the team.  They were the second lowest goal scorers in the league last season behind Hibs, who were a mile behind with only 31 goals to St Mirrens 39.  Add on that tomorrow they are likely to be missing their top scorer, and if we can keep a clean sheet tomorrow, I reckon we have the game won, despite our relatively poor start infront of goal.

 

How to break them down

 

Looking purely at their match against fellow promoted side Hamilton last week, the one thing that stands out is their standing off of driving players.  It lead to their first goal  and at least 2 other key chances.

 

First is the goal.  As you see, Crawford gets the ball to him from out wide, and is then given all the room he wants from Jason Naismith and Marc McAusland, who even left his man…to do no closing down, just poor jockeying.

 

 

Here is a complicated one.  In this case you have multiple errors, which definitely should’ve been pounced upon.  Firstly, they allow a Hamilton man to just walk through them when their are 3 oplayers around him, if their is anywhere on the pitch to put in a challengem it’s there, to kill the counter attack.  Marc McAusland  at the RB position is then leaving his man once Hamilton get halfway, but once again putting no pressure on the drive, which just gives him options.  From this, it also creates a natural angle run for Dougie Imrie to make, which is played through well, with a good recovery tackle by Jeroen Tesselaar

 

 

Here you see some “schoolboy” defending from StMirren.  Jason Naismith is caught ballwatch, waiting on a pass, not anticipating the pass and failing to put in a tackle when he could.  Once he corrected himself from being at the wrong side of Redmond (Hamilton), he needs to be putting in a tackle to stop the ball being put in.  Curier squanders the chance, but make no mistake, tomorrow we MUST press high and hard to force mistakes from a young defence.  Jim Goodwin is the only player in it above the age of 26.

 

 

St Mirren Lineup

 

In all honesty, their team is very hard to pick tomorrow, with 2 new players coming in, Isaac Osbourne (formerly of Partick Thistle) and Adam Drury (on loan from Man City).  Add on Goodwins return from suspension (?), Thompson being unlikely to start, and a possible change in ideas after the humbling last week.  Most of their fans are running with the idea of them also playing 4-2-3-1 of Kello, Naismith, McAusland, Plummer, Tesselaar, Osbourne, McGinn, Drury, McLean, Wylde and Ball.

 

St Mirren Predict XI

 

Sidenotes / Questions;

 

Will we finally play with width?  It’s something many fans are begging for, and it’s a feature that Dundee fans love.  Added on to it being effective against played who hold off from tackles, and you have a recipe for success.

 

Do we finally go to the 4-2-3-1 which so many predicted we would run with all season?  Does Tank get off the mark in the league if he gets to play the role which suits him best?

 

Will we see Wighton Vs Goodwin?  I don’t think so, Hartley is very protective of Craig, and rightly so, and bearing in mind Goodwins force in tackles, it may be best to hold him off.

 

Do we go with 2 flat DMCs?  Is McBride fit enough for tomorrow?  And does he fit with Ferry in this role?

 

McGinn Vs McGinn.  Brothers could face each other tomorrow as Paul McGinn could see his younger brother John playing the DMC role for St Mirren instead of Goodwin or Osbourne.

Notes

McGinn not a wingback, he’s a full back.

No midfield, 1 short in the middle.

Playing ourselves in to trouble at points at the back. Avoid passing back to Kyle.

Tanks touch is woeful, passing without confidence.

No link up with Peaso working

Worldie of a strike for their first.

No shots at all, they’re compact in the middle.

Playing down the channels, but we have no wingers. Horrible formation.

Dundee -v- Partick Thistle Preview

Dundee -v- Partick Thistle Preview

 

Another day, another dawning.  Another chance for our first 3 points of the season.  Let’s see if I can calm my nerves this week.

 

Predicted Formation and XI.

 

There will be changes about today.  Captain Kevin Thomson is out today, which gives Paul Hartley plenty of options to him for change today.  The most likely switch is that Jim McAllister comes in for him, and links Simon Ferry to Harkins and McGowan. Alternatively, we can add Kevin McBride and keep the 4-2-2-2.  We can also look at switching strikers and formations completely.  Stewart hasn’t made much of an impact yet in his partnership with Tankullic (who himself hasn’t covered himself in glory).  4-2-3-1 with McBride and Ferry holding, and Harkins, McGowan and either Boyle of McAllister in the 3 is a real possibility.  Personally, I would go with 4-2-3-1, and I’ll expand on that in the next section.  But here’s my XI and formation.

 

Forecasted XI and formation.

 

Partick Thistles Strengths

 

Thistle are a team on the up.  Just look at their cracking result during the week.  The one thing that stands out to me from watching a few of their highlights is their strength in pressing high, and being able to play the ball from the centre circle to their wide players to use, which is one of their strengths.

 

 

An example of the high pressure system which creates chances and pounces upon the smallest of mistakes.  We do play a similar way in the holding positions.

 

 

 

Clearly the second example is key.  The cross ball catches County on the back foot, and sucker-punches them to put them on behind.  This is a key reason why we can’t play with wingbacks today.  Full-backs are a must.

 

Thistles Key Players

 

To me Thistle have 2 key players.  The first of Ryan Stevenson.  He’s  a great attacking midfielder who creates a lot and was easily Heart guiding light last season as they fought hard to avoid relegation.  He scored 8 goals in his 28 games for them last season, a solid return for a player who was under so much pressure for them.  Theirs an interesting connection to this game for him – he goes up against the man who he has abit of a running storyline with in James McPake.  Stevenson was cited for a lunging challenge on him in 2013, and got a 2 match ban for it.

 

Osman Abdul

 

Having captained Crewe, he was released at the end of his contract.  He has a great ability to play deep in the centre of midfield and he does to an extent have a slight roaming role.  He most certainly isn’t a goal scorer, but he can make them with the touches that can open room for his own players – largely their Kevin Thomson os the best description.

 

Thistles Weakness

 

Thistle conceded the joint second most goals last season, 1 less than Killie, at 65 goals for the league season.  This puts their average at 1.7 goals per game against.  Scott Fox joined them from us and has since played 120 games, if he has a good game, he’s capable at this level, but if we can pressure their defence and get some shots on target to challenge them.  He has a slight tendency to punch the ball, which could be capitalised by closing down after strikes.  He loves coming out to through balls, and has pace, to through balls should be played with the knowledge a chip is required.

 

Keys To Winning

 

Keeping the defence under control, no wingbacks, no messing around with the ball too much, or playing passes in to trouble.

 

Getting shots on target from less than 18 yards.  I do prefer our 3 attacking midfielders having an option to play it through, but Tank goes against that.  We could just as easily see the same XI (with McAllister switched for Thomson) as Wednesday though as PH seems to tink it’s working mostly.

 

High pressure midfield.  This is going to be another midfield battle the way I see it.  We’ve got to pressure harder and higher than we did during the week which was the only real thing we could’ve done much better. Thomson missing out will make it harder, but this could make the difference in making enough chances for the striker(s).

Dundee 0-0 ICT Review

It’s a right bugger writing 4,000 words a week on Dundees Tactics , so this is another condensed piece for a game with not much to write about in all honesty.  So another bullet-point piece with no GIFs and videos and Partick preview upin an hour.

 

Clean Sheets 

 

As mentioned, Caley are clean sheet masters, but I forecast us to be tight at the back this season also.  If we can avoid getting 5 put past us by anyone this season, we could keep the against column very low.  It’s more getting the ball in the net which is starting to hinder us.

 

Neutralising Billy McKay

 

We done a brilliant job doing this – and it’s largely down to our deep line, which didn’t give McKay the chance to get a real run on our defence, bar 1 or 2 situations where Caley used a strong counter attack.  Full credit goes to PH for this, and McPake, Konrad and co controlled and largely neutralised this.

 

Managerial Chess

 

Didn’t really happen as we had to make an early switch as Thomson had to go off to be replaced by Jim, but with that said, it was another match where PH made attacking substitutes.  Thomson could’ve easily been replaced like for like by Davidson.  Surprisingly, McBride wasn’t even on the bench, even with Thomson known to be carrying an injury, which implies PH new the risk, and was going to play attacking if it happened, which is refreshing to see.

The two striker based subs were very interesting.  Neither of our strikers have scored now in the opening 2 matches.  Nothing much to worry about, but what I do worry about is how Stewart and Tankulic play together.  Tank is the ideal 1 upfront; he drops deep, goes wide, and makes room for people, but the issue is that Stewart is playing the deeper striker role (almost a 1-1 up front instead of steady 2).  So when we’re in attacking positions, you’re seeing a line of 4 or 5, not 2 different banks, which means we can’t really play it through, you’re limited to balls wide (without any wingers on the pitch), or dribbling through the defence, which is a tough skill.  If we’re going to persist with 4-4-2 (or 4-2-2-2), then up top we have to have Peaso.  Peaso plays the man up top perfectly.  I’d be inclined to give Peaso and Tank the starts if we’re getting 2, or Tank on his own if it’s to be one.  I’ve still to figure out Stewart, against Peterhead he was playing much more as a man to peel off shoulders, but that wasn’t the case in the 2 league matches, which has me thinking.

The introduction of Boyle gave us a real pace, and width on the right.  Within 5 minutes of coming on he had gotten past his man twice, and played a nice attacking run on the counter. Everyone can already tell I’m a big proponent of Boyle.  I’ve thought we would start with him in every game, but it hasn’t been.  He made a good case for a start today, and with Particks style of play, could make a good link up with a full-back McGinn.   The other switch was Peaso for Tank, and the one thing which stood out about Peaso to me was his role at set-pieces.

This season we seem to be focusing hard on set-pieces, and it’s already clear we have a few different moves.  The one which brought most joy on Wednesday (including 2 great chances for McDonald), was the Harkins deep ball, to Peaso, who peels from the shoulder of his man at the front post, and runs around the back.  Our other key one is the man on the front post stepping out 3 yards for the first man knock-on corner.  Similar to Man Uniteds equaliser from the ’99 Champions League Final.  I’d say Peaso is worth a start with Boyle for this one reason.  Boyles width will get corners, and Peaso looks dangerous at them.

Keys To Winning – Did we Use Them?

 

Stop McKay by man-marking – we didn’t man mark him, but we did counteract his movement by playing the deep line.  YES.

 

Getting Tank to shoot from further out – Nope, he didn’t get enough chances to run with the ball on goal, and didn’t shoot enough, something he still needs work on. -NO.

 

Getting past their defence in to 1 on 1s – Nope.  Too much deep play from both of our strikers.  We need the one to stay up top, which Peaso can be.  Or to play a single one up top which can can be.  NO.

 

A clean sheet – the defence and Kyle shored up considerably.  They mixed the goal-kick polarisation up, they didn’t take too many touches, and the weren’t scared to clear their lines if under pressure.  A big positive, and if we can keep a good balance between the clearances, we’re sorted on that front.  Kyle again showed excellent shot stopping, and kept us in the game at points.  Definitely something which gave me confidence.  YES!

 

2/4 ain’t bad.  But we need to really work on getting goals from our strikers, and not even goals, just chances.  Our defence is a great base, our midfield looks brilliant, but our strikers are faltering, and it’s all about the movement.  Fix this and we’re going upwards.

Mini Inverness Preview

Some quick key stats and observations for tonights game.  I’m in a slight rush as my bus leaves at 15:30, and frankly, I’m gagging for a pint.

 

Clean Sheet Kings – Inverness kept 22 (!) clean sheets last term from their 46 games, a fantastic record.  They conceded just 44 goals in the league last term, putting them 4th in the league.  Their main problem came from only scoring 44 in the league also.  That said – they had a disastrous week conceding 10 goals in 2 games against Celtic then United the next.

 

Dean Brill is IMO a one of the top keepers in the league now that Forster is gone.  At 28, he’s reaching his peak, and if he can keep the #1 spot from Esson, who is another great keeper, their defence could see them pushing for Europe again if Hughes keeps them playing the right type of football.

 

King Billy – It’s no secret Billy McKay is Inverness’s goal machine.  18 of their 44 goals last year, all of which I have analysed.  An astounding 8 of his 18 goals come from him peeling off the defenders shoulder (often the right back) to make room for himself, and he has some fantastic finishing to match.  Add on that he has the poachers instinct of being at the right place at the right time – and you get why he’s always at the top end of the goalscorers in the Prem.

He’s not their only goalscorer, Richie Foran if he gets enough games can score, he had a poor return last season of just 4 in his 26 league games, but he helps McKay in making room and passes alot.

 

**Noted stat**  44.4% of McKays goals come from the peeling off the shoulder.  This is not variation, it’s his key move to making room.  ICT are fantastic at quick counter goals, so when the defence is on the back foot, watch for McKay to make his room with this move.  For this very reason I’d suggest going 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 with a man-marker on him and the defence being made aware of what his tendency is to do.

 

ICT Formation

 

General consensus if ICT will maintain the same XI as their win on Saturday over fellow new boys Hamilton.  Their 4-2-3-1 / 4-5-1 is effective with the pacey counters they can demonstrate, and it fits their belief of clean sheets winning games.

 

ICT Forecasted Lineup

 

Hartleys XI

 

No need to draw a graph for this – I think we all predict 4-2-3-1 with JIm in for Stewart.  Midfield 3 of Harkins, Jim and McGowan all given free roles, with Jims job being to connect the midfield and defence.  Against a 4-2-3-1, I always like width, when the wingbacks push forward you can exploit this in counter attacks with width – but with Roberts suspended for tonight and 2 more matches, Riley having played 45 for our U20s on Monday and Boyle not in Hartleys plans, Dundee fans better adapt not a lack of width or be prepared to see more of GGH, McGowan and Jim powering in the middle of the pitch.

 

Managerial Chess

 

I reckon with Hughes and PH, we could see substitutes make the difference tonight.  Hartley showed he isn’t scared to go for it on Saturday, and Hughes is a brave man who has sometimes been seen as foolish – the subs could make the difference – and most of ours are attacking!

 

Keys To Winning

 

Stop McKay by man-marking

 

Getting Tank to shoot from further out.

 

Getting past their defence and in to 1 on 1s.

 

A clean sheet is a must, most importantly.

Dundee 1-1 Killie Review

Dundee played their first game back in the SPFL Premiership on Saturday, infront of a solid 7588 at Dens.  The game ended in a 1-1 draw, which if anything was harsh on Dundee who dominated the second half, after a fairly even first.

Lineup

Slim 4-4-2 from Dundee.

Dundee kept the same formation as the League Cup win over Peterhead, with the only change being James McPake replacing Kyle Benedictus at centre back.  The key difference of note was that the slim 4-4-2 at times resembled, or possibly morphed in to a diamond 4-4-2 with Thomson holding, Ferry right, Harkins left and McGowan centre.  Although Harkins and McGowan rotate a lot between roles.

The morphed formation Dundee at times looked to be playing.

Using our starting formation, Dundee appear to play a very zonal marking system, which works when you’re in a midfield battle and trying to stop the ball getting past you, as it often turns the opposition in to a long ball team, as coverage is high.  Using the second is much more conducive to a team playing through balls and passes through you due to the increase in pockets you leave open, as we saw during our lull in the first half on Saturday.

Goalkeeping Frailty Pt. 2

It’s fair to say, while Letheren made a few very nice (and vital) saves, from point blank, his abilities as a sweeping goalkeeper are very worrisome.  Several times Dundee players could be seen talking to him after incidents about this.  McPake and Thomson in particular had heated exchanges with him.  Add in his inability to start plays from the back, and you can see why Paul Hartley brought in his own keeper, and I don’t expect to see Letheren in between the sticks come October.

While Letheren makes a fantastic point blank save, he wrong footed himself in this case.

While not visible – in this mistake Letheren stalls after starting (committing?) to his run, causing a GSO for Killie.

Defensive Errors

This will read like I’m slating these player, but I’m not, they all played well, it’s just the errors which give away clean chances we need to cut down on to survive this season.  In this case, Paul McGinn, who worked tirelessly is caught napping between the goals.  While drifting in, he’s clearly ball watching, and not paying any attention to one of his men Tope Obadeyi, who drifts inwards infront of him, and is slipped in by Barbour, in a chance that hit our bar and got the Derry anxious.

McGinn not noticing Obadeyis run until it is too late and he is through.

In this case – it’s the freekick which lead to the goal.  James McPake dives in needlessly to a challenge where he could’ve easily just held his ground and let Obadeyi run into the pack of players around him.  It does seem in fairness that Obadeyi turns in to McPake, and he slightly wrong foots him, but a poor foul to concede from a player who lead from the back and partnered well with Thomas Konrad who strolled it again.

James McPake needlessly dives in when Obadeyi is going nowhere.

The next one is more of a midfield issue, and one which is based on the comments above about playing with just the 1 holding midfielder.  In this scene, you see Chris Johnston in plenty of space, having slotted between Ferry who is dragged wider to the right, and Thomson who has to press the ball more.  When you’re switching between the slim 4-4-2 and the diamond, you’ll find players making these spaces for themselves.  This leads to Johnstons shot below, which while being a poor effort, could’ve seen a more experienced midfielder drive with it and play it forward for a real chance.

Johnston moving between Ferry and Thomson. Ferry could’ve follow?

Poor effort from Chris Johnston.

Creative Dundee

 

As you’d expect from a midfield which contains the starting 4, plus Jim McAllister, when firing on all cylinders, we create a barrel load of chances, with Saturday being no different.

 

The first is a case of a well picked pass by Willie Dyer, to GGH in room, with a great drive and dribble by him, and a fine save by Samson to get down low to the driven shot.  GGH really came right in to a game in the second half with Jim beside him, which could make the ICT game interesting.  His weight-loss and trim figure has him looking much more agile when running at defences and on the ball in general.

 

 

GGH drives at the Killie defence.

 

The second effort comes from Paul McGowan, and is made in 2 parts.  First Luka drops deep, something he does frequently (to many fans dismay, but i’ll get to this later), and his fine footwork leads to Paul getting on the ball, making room for himself and getting a fine effort on target to make Samson work, once again.

 

Luka drops deep to start a possession spell.

 

McGowan makes room and get an effort on target.

 

To com eback to the point of Luka dropping deep – it’s common already to see Luka dropping deep to start something, eerily similar to what Benzema is like for Real Madrid.  The key point is though, he will be played as a lone striker for a large part of our season in the 4-2-3-1 formation, and as a lone striker, you have to stop yourself from being isolated, and dropping in is one of the best ways to do such.  Not only does it give you more creativity and ball time, but it helps create chances for the 3 behind you.  Many online and at Dens didn’t like his dropping, but it astounds me why.  He’s not a generic target man that stands up top, he’s a creator and a scorer, something that fits perfectly with Hartleys philosophy, and the formation.  Dare I even say, if Hartley and the management staff can continue to work on getting him to shoot from distances, we could see him dropping even more for the ball, and seeing him getting efforts in from 20 yards very often.

 

The last chance to go over is GGH skipping past a sliding tackle, and getting a great effort in on target.  It may seem that I’m overly focusing on GGH, but everything positive from us in the second came through GGH and Jim getting the ball and linking together.  Here, GGH gives the slip to a tackle, and gets another shot in on target, for Samson to yet again thwart.  Credit must go to Samson for keeping Killie in the game.  There was another GGH chance, and a quick follow-up shot by Tankulic which he saved earlier on in the half.  Samson had a fine game.

 

GGH dribbles past a tackle and gets an effort on goal.

 

GOALS

 

Dundees goal came from the spot.  To me this is a pretty clear penalty and doesn’t need much focus.  GGH is clearly hip-checked and the referee has the same angle as us, and has seen the exact same thing – GGH bearing down on goal and then being nudged off his feet.  Does he go down softly?  Probably, but there’s a clear budge, and contact, and dare I say Killie fans would be screaming for a pen if it happened at the other end of the pitch.

 

GGH hipchecked by Connolly.

 

He slots it home, cool as you like too.

 

Jeebsy slots it home.

 

Killies “Stunner” or Letherens Blunder?

 

I’m still undecided full on this issue.  No one can deny that this is a peach of a strike, yet LEtheren doesn’t really cover himself in glory to be honest.  He lines the wall up fine, but his positioning is very suspect.

 

Suspect Positioning?

 

As you can see, he’s lined the wall up with with his right hand post, but I have a couple of questions here.  Firstly – whats the need in a 5 man wall?  the 4 would’ve worked just as well, and given him room for vision, and not hampered the walls job of stopping the ball.  Secondly, he completely wrong-footed himself by taking a step right first (albeit a small one), which means the shot to the left catches him out.  Finally – does the Killie use of a man on the end of the wall not give away where he’s putting it?  This is Scottish football, people don’t think on any logical level above level 1.  The man on the left ism very rarely a decoy, it’s almost always a block the keeper move, implying he’s going that way.

 

The finish itself when you watch it again and again isn’t up to much.  It doesn’t really go on the inside of the netting, if Letheren hadn’t wrong footed himself, he could’ve probably gotten to it in 1 step.  That said, there is a decent amount of force behind it.

 

 

The above video starts at the free-kick.

 

Subs / Formation Alterations

 

Hartley used all 3 of his subs on Saturday, with all 3 being attacking based switches, with 1 of them being a notable strategy switch.  At 75 minutes, Jim McAllister replaced Simon Ferry who looked tired, having been all over the pitch, having been put in a position to juggle 2 roles. Jim McAllister came on and narrowed the side again, largely over-looking the need to juggle any width, and forcing plays through the middle.  Jims energy worked, although, with no options of width on the bench, it was the only choice PH could make to try and win the game.  McAllister forced the ball through the middle brilliantly, linking well with GGH and McGowan to create chances.  Peaso replaced Greg Stewart soon there after, and it seemed the ball just wouldn’t fall for him, and Craig Wighton replaced Luka Tankulic who was looking tired also.  Neither of the striker subs made much of an impact, but the McAllister replacement was inspirational as Jim led us as well as he could, and as close as you could to 3 points, just falling short.  It would be no surprise to se Jim start on Wednesday.

 

ICT Preview

 

Mini ICT preview will go up in an hour or 2 – unfortunately, with midweek games, and a job to juggle, it’s hard to put out 5k+ words in the space of 3 days.  That said, I feel I’ve uncovered a couple of cracking stats about Billy McKay and how to stop him – put stopping McKay is only a small part of the job from a team who have talent throughout.

Killie Preview

Dundee -v- Kilmarnock Preview

The big kick-off is nigh upon us, and if you’re like me, you’re probably nervous already, desperately so, and have been for the last week now.  Each week, to help calm my nerves, and assure me we are destined for glory, I’m going to break-down our opposition (if it’s possible) and question “Do Dundee have the ability to exploit these issues”.

Predicted Formation and XI

Having looked over Killie’s pre-season and discussed it with a couple of their fans, their is a general consensus that this is how they will line up, although today (Thursday 7th August), they re-signed Alexi Eremenko, which is a wildcard, as Allan Johnston may see the need for his creativity.  Most likely though he will come from the bench, and we will look at this later.

Goalkeeper

Craig Samson – Craig is well known to Dundee fans, having played for us in the 07-08 season.  From this time, he was seen as a decent enough First Division keeper, but nothing more.  He was prone to an occasional clanger, and was susceptible to crosses.  Last season for Killie he was an ever present, playing every game.  If we can work out set-pieces correctly, he might start to fumble, but he is a decent shot stopper.

Last season stats: 40 appearances, with 72 goals against.  1.8 goals against per game on average.

Craig Samson clanger -v- Celtic in 4-0 loss last season.

Defence

Ross Barbour – The 21 year old is a Killie kid, who started to break in to their side last season.  They have high hopes for him, but his inexperience against our vastly experienced XI may mean he finds himself out of position at points, or overwhelmed.

Last season stats:  7 appearances, 12 conceded. 1.71 GPG against.

Mark Connolly – Connolly is a new signing for Killie, having been one of 13 players released by Crawley Town at the end of last season, having finished 14th of the 24 teams.  He is still young at   22 years old, and transferred from Wolves to Bolton for £1M in 2009.  He had a very solid start for Crawley, but faded, despite maintaining his place last season.

Last season stats:  40 apps last season for Crawley, 46 conceded. – GPG against was 1.15

Lee Ashcroft  – Another prospect from the Killie Academy. Ashcroft made his debut in the 2012/13 season, playing 3 times, and has came in to his own, becoming a regular for them last season.  He was brought on during the Dundee -v- Killie match in May 2013.

Last season stats:  25 appearances with 46 conceded – GPG was 1.84

Mark O’Hara – You guessed it, another youth player here.  Made his debut in 2012/13, playing 20 times at the age of just 16.  He’s now 18, with some experience, having played a similar amount last season, and most pre-season games this year as a starter.  His LB position is one which Killie fans really worry about, as they feel he is to young for week in – week out football, but it could be the making of him.  He’s calm on the ball, but struggles against physicality.  Can also play RB.

Last season stats:  16 appearances, conceding 32 goals.

Last season their team average defensively was 1.8 conceded per game.  Samson was an ever present, thus his stats apply.  Using their predicted defensive starters, their conceded goals per game average become 1.625 conceded per game – mainly dragged up by Connolly with Crawley Town.  He could be a quality signing for them in helping shore up a very loose defence.  Fair to say this is certainly a position they will need to improve upon from last year.

MIDFIELD

Craig Slater – Former St Mirren youth player, Slater made his debut for them in December 2012.  His preferred role is as a holding midfielder.

Last season stats:  23 appearances and 1 goal.  GPG against is 2.

Manuel Pascali – The second holding midfielder, Pascali is the leader of the team, and can also hold down the centre defence if needed.  Personally, I see him as Killie’s most important player in this XI, even if some of their fans see him as a bit of a hot and cold player.  He does tend to only play roughly 20 games per season.

Last season stats:  32 appearances and 0 goals.  GPG against was 1.875

Chris Johnston – A 19 year old, natural right winger, but he can play in the middle as well.  Now that they’ve signed Eremenko again, he’ll likely hold down the right winger position for them.  Probably their most naturally talented player from their youth system, Killie fans expect big things from him this season.  22 appearances with 4 goals. GPG against was 2.

Tope Obadeyi – A pacy left winger, Tope has never really been able to hold down a permanent role at any club he’s been at, but he’s certainly able to whip in a dangerous cross, and scored a wonderful strike against Morecambe in their 2-2 draw, this pre-season.

Last season stats for Bury / Plymouth: 25 appearances, 1 goal, with a GPG against of 1.06

Tope Obadeyi rocket -v- Morecambe.

ATTACK

Josh Magennis – A player Aberdeen fans have been jokingly trying to palm off to every other club they could.  Magennis is a 6 foot 2 target man, who also has a decent first touch, and some pace to go with it.  His main problem is that he just can’t score however.  He’s scored just 10 goals in 122 career games.  He has scored 2 for Killlie in pre-season however, one being a fine header against Morecambe.

Last season stats:  35 appearances between Aberdeen (parent club) and St Mirren. 1 goal.  Career average of 0.07 goals per game scored.

Josh Magennis header -v- Morecambe.

Rory McKenzie – Still fairly young at the age of 20, Rory McKenzie is the final prospect from the youth system at Killie.  He has started almost every pre-season game up top, with other strikers rotating around hiim, so he looks a stick-on to start. He has create ball control, and his movement can cause havoc for defences.  Probably the striker which Konrad will have to mark, with McPake taking Magennis.

Last season stats:  35 appearances, 4 goals, giving him 0.11 goals per game.  His career average is 0.17.

Loss of Boyd

Most people are asking this question, and pinning all of Killies hopes on this not being as catastrophic as the stats suggest.  After signing Boyd for the season, he featured 37 times, scoring a remarkable 22 goals in that time, giving him a goal per game ratio of 0.59 goals per game.  Killie only scored 48 goals last season, the joint 9th worst in the league.  When you add on that they’ve not lost the player who scored 45% of their goals, it is a major worry, as much as they fans try to play it down.

Rory McKenzie could very well develop in to a striker that can score 10, maybe even 15 this year if he has a good spell, but the chances of him leading the team in the way Boyd did, getting crucial goals that he did, or indeed scoring the 22 that he did, are very slim.

Breakdown of Weaknesses

While it may seem very harsh to judge Killie based on one of their toughest, and worst result of last season, the 4-0 trouncing at Parkhead gives Dees fans a whiff of optimism in my eyes.  Celtic exposed Killie is only 2 or 3 real ways, but those ways are the manner which Paul Hartley has us exploiting.

1st goal – Joe Ledley from James Forrest ball.

Joe Ledleys goal is an example of centre midfielder making a late run through an open channel to give a through ball an option.  Now, to take you back to “Other Chances” section of my Dundee -v- Peterhead Review, the first point we talk about is a Gary Harkins overlap, to a through ball from Kevin Thomson.  It’s a perfect example of how to exploit Killie and their youthful left and right backs, who may be caught ball watching.

Joe Ledley goal from Forrest through ball.

3rd Goal – Joe Ledley lob pass.

Joe Ledley turned from scorer in to maker here, with a goal similar to our third -v- Peterhead.  To quote my summary of Peaso’s goal; “a dead weight ball, with perfect lob, right on his target[s]”.  Added to this case is Manuel Pascali completely misjudging the offside trap he set, playing Mulgrew onside, having been watching the ball, not the man.

Perfectly weighted ball to Mulgrew by Ledley.

Several Goals Source

Last season, Killie lost a fair few goals from teams targetting their weakness at the backs, including the Samson clanger at the top where the player stands off.  United in the 4-1 hammering they gave at Rugby Park done so extremely well, with Stuart Armstrong getting in to a great position with young Ashcroft, and making him run to his own goal, then simply turn him out of the game.  Getting Harkins, Boyle and McGowan in these positions could be very positive for our goal tally on Saturday.

Armstrong turning Ashcroft inside out.

Dundee Line-up

I see us lining up in a 4-2-3-1 this weekend for a few reasons.  First off – it’s clearly the perfect formation for a team with only 1 notable SPL level striker in Tankulic. We don’t have enough quality yet to go and play Stewart, Peaso or Wighton IMO, we need to prove we can create at this level first.

Secondly, it’s a formation which is flexible.  If we don’t seem to start well on Saturday, it’s easily switched in to a multitude of formations, from 4-4-2 with 1 switch of a midfielder turning into a striker, to 4-3-3 with one of your ACMs dropping to DCM (Defensive CM).  5-4-1 and 4-5-1 and easily done also.  It’s probably the most comfortable starting formation any manager can start with.

Finally – it has a great balance between attack and defence to use against a side which MAY be lacking goals, and MAY be vulnerable to it’s backs being exploited.

As you see, in attacking situations, we potentially can have 4 players, 2 on each side attacking their backs, with 3 central players (Ferry, McGowan and Tankulic) looking for link-ups.

Attacking 4-2-3-1 Positions.

This is the reason why I feel we need to (and probably will) start Martin Boyle.  Martin is developing well under Hartley, and as much as Hartley seems determined to turn him in at an ACM, he’s a natural winger with his pace and ability to knock the ball past a man, and Kilmarnock are the side to use that against, to me.