I hate to call this game a big game, or a must-win, especially so early, but the more and more you look at it, we need to get a W on the board, and preferably score some goals – here’s the preview.
Predicted Formation and XI
Letheren, McGinn, McPake, Konrad, Irvine, McBride, Ferry, Boyle, McGowan, Harkins and Tankulic.
Dyer and Thomson out injured means we have a slightly altered defensive side to the team, and the attacking side is still open to options. Tomorrow I could see Hartley pitting McGowan next to Jim Goodwin of St Mirren. Goodwin is coming back from his opening day Red Card, and is a well known hot-head, and Paul McGowan is “an angry little man” – Kevin Thomson. McGowan wings folk up brilliantly on the pitch, and is the sort you hate against you but love for you. So to me, it’s clear we must have them face off as much as possible.
I also bench Wighton. This is a move that a lot of fans will dislike, but Goodwin is a dirty player and I would HATE to see him injured at his hands. He can be a fantastic impact sub later on as he can find the space and play central once Goodwin is off, or tired and can’t get to him. I play Boyle for the same reason as McGowan, he would run Goodwin and co crazy with his pace. Add in we’ve lacked width so far this season, and it could answer our goal problems.
I also go with Tank from the start, but it’s in the 4-2-3-1 which he looked so comfortable in during pre-season. I still insist this is his best formation, as it allows him to drop deep and make room for the 3 behind him to get in and about too. The 4-2-3-1 is really needing tested in the league, and with St Mirren being a low scoring side, we can run the risk to test it.
Predicted 4-2-3-1 line-up.
St Mirren Strength
Their main strength is that at home, they are a strong side. They won 7 of their 22 home ties last season, a decent 36%. Their goal record at home last season was actually a positive record at +3, having scored 23 goals, and only conceded 20 in the league. The only team in last season Bottom 6 to do so as well. Definitely down to being organised and hard to break down.
This is showed in their solid defensive record, with the second best defence in the bottom 6, conceding 58 goals in their 38 league games, giving an average of 1.5 goals per game against.
Key Players
Steven Thompson
It’s an easy one to pick. Their top scorer who put in 16 goals in his 41 games last season. The DAB is certainly their key to the net with 32% of their goals, thankfully for us, he is injured and expected to only play from the bench tomorrow, as he could’ve been a handful, but I’d have had faith in Konrad and McPake anyway.
Jim Goodwin
Goodwin as pointed out is a liability, which is why many St Mirren fans are shouting for him to be kept out the side, but it can’t be denied, he is a great player at breaking down attacks. His problem is his 7 career red cards, and with him aging and slowing down now at the age of 32, I can only see that number going up this season. Will he start, I’d say he probably will as management see him as a leader.
St Mirrens Weakness
The one thing that holds St Mirren back is their lack of goals around the team. They were the second lowest goal scorers in the league last season behind Hibs, who were a mile behind with only 31 goals to St Mirrens 39. Add on that tomorrow they are likely to be missing their top scorer, and if we can keep a clean sheet tomorrow, I reckon we have the game won, despite our relatively poor start infront of goal.
How to break them down
Looking purely at their match against fellow promoted side Hamilton last week, the one thing that stands out is their standing off of driving players. It lead to their first goal and at least 2 other key chances.
First is the goal. As you see, Crawford gets the ball to him from out wide, and is then given all the room he wants from Jason Naismith and Marc McAusland, who even left his man…to do no closing down, just poor jockeying.
Here is a complicated one. In this case you have multiple errors, which definitely should’ve been pounced upon. Firstly, they allow a Hamilton man to just walk through them when their are 3 oplayers around him, if their is anywhere on the pitch to put in a challengem it’s there, to kill the counter attack. Marc McAusland at the RB position is then leaving his man once Hamilton get halfway, but once again putting no pressure on the drive, which just gives him options. From this, it also creates a natural angle run for Dougie Imrie to make, which is played through well, with a good recovery tackle by Jeroen Tesselaar
Here you see some “schoolboy” defending from StMirren. Jason Naismith is caught ballwatch, waiting on a pass, not anticipating the pass and failing to put in a tackle when he could. Once he corrected himself from being at the wrong side of Redmond (Hamilton), he needs to be putting in a tackle to stop the ball being put in. Curier squanders the chance, but make no mistake, tomorrow we MUST press high and hard to force mistakes from a young defence. Jim Goodwin is the only player in it above the age of 26.
St Mirren Lineup
In all honesty, their team is very hard to pick tomorrow, with 2 new players coming in, Isaac Osbourne (formerly of Partick Thistle) and Adam Drury (on loan from Man City). Add on Goodwins return from suspension (?), Thompson being unlikely to start, and a possible change in ideas after the humbling last week. Most of their fans are running with the idea of them also playing 4-2-3-1 of Kello, Naismith, McAusland, Plummer, Tesselaar, Osbourne, McGinn, Drury, McLean, Wylde and Ball.
St Mirren Predict XI
Sidenotes / Questions;
Will we finally play with width? It’s something many fans are begging for, and it’s a feature that Dundee fans love. Added on to it being effective against played who hold off from tackles, and you have a recipe for success.
Do we finally go to the 4-2-3-1 which so many predicted we would run with all season? Does Tank get off the mark in the league if he gets to play the role which suits him best?
Will we see Wighton Vs Goodwin? I don’t think so, Hartley is very protective of Craig, and rightly so, and bearing in mind Goodwins force in tackles, it may be best to hold him off.
Do we go with 2 flat DMCs? Is McBride fit enough for tomorrow? And does he fit with Ferry in this role?
McGinn Vs McGinn. Brothers could face each other tomorrow as Paul McGinn could see his younger brother John playing the DMC role for St Mirren instead of Goodwin or Osbourne.
Dundee Tactics 